Just a thought

Just in case you wanted to know, shorting the market right now probably not working out so well. This week should finish strong. However, there is often a change in sentiment when a new month starts (don't ask me why) and I would look to short then. Although if the sentiment doesn't change look to the next FED meeting as the next 'fear' moment. I would reduce exposure heading into that meeting, but until then net long all the way baby!

Inflation? Whats That?

"UPS to Boost Commercial Ground Rates by 3.9 Percent, Air/international Services by 5.5 Percent"

This headline from Friday just reminded me of that whole inflation issue I keep hearing so much about. CNBC keeps telling me that there is no inflation...Look if you back out energy, food, consumer goods, business goods, yada yada yada, "super duper" core inflation only rose 0.02%. See now there isn't anything to worry about is there? But seriously, it is around us, it is coming..Recesi... Its not time to finish the word yet, but I feel like December could be a rough month, and if not just push my prediction back a month to January. Trust me we are going to get hit hard, its only a matter of time.

BTW: Check out GOOG, I took some off the table at $400. I am now wishing I hadn't but then again it was a prudent thing to do. $100 per share gains aren't too shabby.

CAB

I hate to say it but I am going to buy some CAB tomorrow. Maybe I just enjoy losing money, but somehow I feel like there has to be something of value in that company, especially heading into the holiday season. For those of us doing the math right now I am down 28.8% on this position, but on the positive note, the stock I bought last year is now subject to long term capital loss tax. Luckily the value of this stock has shrunk so much its a fairly insignificant part of my portfolio, so I don't really have to worry about the downside as much, its already in...one day I will lower my basis enough on this stock to break even, I just know it.

JNJ

The man who runs this company is a brilliant man. Uses his leverage over GDT to drive the price down and make it seem like a good deal to their shareholders when he pays them $63 a share as opposed to the original offer. So sweet, JNJ is a buy purely based on management. Amazing. Also is our new Fed chairman spook everyone a bit today, I believe it is so. I think the market is going to be in some serious trouble coming up, I love it. Ohh yeah, and that whole yield curve thing, what happens when that inverts Rec.....

Patience

Nothing noteworthy going on out there today. I am going to predict a down week though, and you know what there is a 50/50 chance I will be right. Posts are going to be slow from here on out though until mid-december. CFA is coming up, study time is upon me.

Kirk Kerkorian

How big of a jackass does Kirk Kerkorian look like today? I remember a few months back when the man tried to get the price of GM to rally based on his bid at $31.00 a share. Even though he could have bought plenty of the stock where it was trading and averaged down as people realized how worthless the company actually was. His feeble attempt to get the price to rally is actually one of the more humorous things I have ever seen. Right now though he should dig in again and maybe offer the buy the stock at $28.00 so he can give people a new shorting opportunity as it is a little risky to short right now. Its funny that he is forced to do this, but if you track his purchases back, you know that he is way underwater on this investment. No doubt he is a smart man with far more money than I, but he better get back on CNBC and hype this dog of a stock or he might as well take the loss today. This POS is headed to $20! Kind of wish I hadn't covered but there is always a new game out there to be played.

Potential future negatives: When (not if) they cut their dividend, when they get the boot from the Dow, when the BANKRUPT!

Potential future positives: When Toyota buys them and turns them into a worthwhile company!

GOOG & GM

GOOG is coming in to where I may consider adding to a position. I covered my GM short today, even though there me some downside left (actually there is a lot) short term it may rally 5%, short it again up there. Man that stock is horrible. Looking for some new long ideas, if anyone has any post them and I will take a look at them. Thanks.

CD

Looks like a buy @ $17.00. Why not huh? Break it up, its gonna be worth more than $17.00. I surely hope so.

The General Market

You know what, I want to come out here and say take your profits. Sell into the rally. Put some cash on the sidelines. But you know what, I can't. There is something that is drawing me into this market. The problem is I can find something negative. The market has gone up god knows how many days in a row, and I don't know what will bring it back down to reality. I love to short stocks. But I can't. Actually that's not entirely true. I have a very small short position in CAMD, which I will look to build on but right now it is fairly insignificant. So what do you do right now? Do you Buy, Sell, or Hold? I say it may be safe to buy a little something even though the market has rallied. I would wait for a small pullback, but why not nibble at something. I was tempted to sell GOOG today, maybe tomorrow, I kind of want to hold it till it hits 400 though. How cool will that be? Anyway this all may change tomorrow, so be nimble.

Earnings of note tommorow: In my world I am watching DISH and FOSL.

Who knows FOSL may be done going down.

Qwest

As a long holder of one of the worst companies of all time, Q, I feel it is my duty to recommend to all of you who read this to short Q. After every quarter the stock trades up, but then people realize it is a worthless company and it comes back down. I realize that I will never make back the money I lost on this stock, so all I have to say is as long as you make money on the short side of it, I'm still happy. This is what we call the "tax-loss" position. I would love to hear someone offer a reason that this company will be in business in 5 years...

Fed Picks

I haven't been on here in a while but just to catch up: I still like homebuilders short term, based on short covering. I like retail ever so slightly, but it may be too risky to hold into tomorrow. GOOG is awesome. LCAV, has to be the single most fickle stock in the world. There is someone out there trying to drive it down and get some momentum players to help him. Although right now I feel like it is getting more difficult. I don't know what to do with that stock right now. Market is looking stellar, go long!

PS. GM=Worst Company Ever! OK maybe not ever but they are just F%*@ed. Gotta stay short.