What a Week!

Ok, so I must say it is volatile out there. Up a hundred, down a hundred, maybe I should trade VIX futures. Anyway, on CAB, the company reported what can be considered a very weak quarter and the stock didn't go down, a positive sign, although it still may trade lower. Heading into the FED meeting next week, I am considering what could be, quite the play. Last FED meeting as I outlined on this website, I shorted retail, homebuilders, and the QQQQ. It worked well. Now I am thinking it is time to reverse that trade. I feel like there is going to be a language change that will excite people and with it will come a rally. It will be short lived but it should yield some short term gains. Again when trading like this it is important to keep a tight leash as it will be volatile out there and you don't want to risk too much.

- Poor LCAV, they can't go up no matter what they do.Might as well use it to your advantage.

Cabela's

I may be eating my words tomorrow, not to mention, living with less money, but my pick for today has to be CAB. The stock has been pounded relentlessly. It is trading 10 points below where it came public over a year ago. Granted things haven't panned out for the company nearly as well as anyone had hoped, but I feel that the negatives are more than priced in. This gives me reason to believe that the downside is limited. Although, another word of caution is that the tide is against the retail stocks. I would not feel comfortable holding this for a long term, but a short trade either 1 day to 3 months may be in order.

- Another note, I am going short LCAV despite my earlier comments. Tight leash, but more to be had on the short side...short term...If that makes any sense.

Pat on the Back

Just got to give myself a little pat on the back for the LCAV pick yesterday. It was nice to see that happen. I expect the stock to continue to trade higher, as the rest of the shorts that leaned on the stock for the last 3 months get shaken out. This stock is worth at least $50. Probably more. I wouldn't buy it right here, but I still recomend it as a purchase if you can get it at a good technical point.

LCAV

My pick for beating earnings tomorrow is LCAV. The company is a fantastic growth story. My only concerns lie with the financing activities but they seem to adequately reduce Accounts Receivable for their generous credit terms. I am somewhat concerned about them opening as many stores as they say they are going to as well, but I believe that they will beat earnings tomorrow, and I will position my self for a small swing trade in the stock, right about now...

Was that it?

I think we just bounced off a bottom. I have covered all my shorts with the exception of GM. I am banking on Ford failing miserably tomorrow. Other than that, net long 80%.

I Feel Like it is Near...

The bottom (short term) is coming. The market doesn't want to stay down. It will open down tomorrow because of INTC, but after that I think the market will rally. I would advise covering some short exposure if you have any tomorrow. Also Oil stocks, what is going on there. I would love to short them but I don't have enough confined in the hurricane. Maybe we should own stocks like UNH, PG and basically, everything we like to call "DEFENSIVE".

Catching Up.

Now for my predictions:
1.) The market will trade down for the next few weeks, I presume as a lack of stellar earnings reports and due to the overuse of the word KATRINA! The bleeding will stop once the Fed announces that they have raised rates! The difference will be a change in 2 or 3 words that gets people excited about the chance of rate hikes coming to an end. While they aren't going to come to an end, there will be a short lived rally between that time and the next Fed meeting at which point I think the market will truly fall apart. It all takes time, be patient.
2.) Google on Thursday...Well I haven't done enough work yet to know for sure, but one thing I can say is that if Yahoo! beats on Tuesday, I will feel comfortable holding GOOG through its release, because they are a much better company than YHOO and should do well if they do. However, if YHOO doesn't do all that well it may be more of a case of shoot first ask questions later for me as I will have no problem rebuying up 20 if I'm wrong.

Google

Google down $10. Looks like a buy to me @ 290.00.

Next Fed Meeting

The market will trade down until the next FED meeting. Then it will jump even though the FED will raise rates. More on this later as well.

Google

I wish the WSJ would stop their endless printing of articles related to who is going to buy AOL. Who cares. The company wont have a single member in 10 years other than those who may still want to use their screen name and talk on messenger all day. But, soon enough all those will be compatible and nobody will need AOL. It is a crappy company with no real value. I kind of home MSFT buys it and I drags them down with it. But knowing my luck GOOG will take it down, and with it,its stock price. Although in the past those guys have run the company well, so who is to say they won't keep doing it in the future. By the way GOOG reports on the 20th. Im gonna make a prediction about what will happen, but not until tomorrow. That is all for now.

Update on the Predictions

DNA hit a high of +6.4% and finished the day +3.16%, AA was up +3.75% at the high and finished +0.84%. Now I had hoped that these two issues would have helped the market. I was not convinced of anything today. The market is just downright bad. What I really like to see though is the selling in the late hours of the day. Lower prices are still coming although people will talk about an oversold bounce for the next few days, I want to see DOW 9,XXX and NAS 1,XXX. That would make me, and probably only me happy. But I think it may be possible. Until then short the hell out of this thing.

2 Ideas for the Day

Two Earnings Reports:

DNA
AA

DNA-After the bell today DNA reports, is all the bad news factored in? I give the stock 8% to the upside, and probably 10% to the downside assuming more negatives. Not the best risk reward ratio.

AA-After the bell AA reports, is all the bad news factored in? I think it is in this case so I would give AA 5% to the upside (at the most, more than likely 3%), and 2% to the downside, but a much higher upside probability.

Either way neither one of these seems all that attractive and I wont trade them but if anyone is interested in them those are my thoughts on your risk reward. I will update tomorrow on how they turn out.

Load up the Boat

Short RTH right now! If you have any specific retail stocks you despise short them as well. I covered URBN because it was simply too strong. It will probably never be this high again. I capitulated! Who knows it could beat estimates and shoot up further (which is what I now anticipate happening) but for the most part the sell off should be brutal.

A Quick Thought on Oil Stocks

I expect oil and related stocks to continue their rise in the short term; however, it just came to me what will be the downfall of oil and the related stocks. The problem in essence is that there is not enough refining capacity to shoulder the load of the demand for gas. So the companies located in the US want to build more refining capacity. Hearken back to the days of Economics 101 for a moment and think about it. When the supply rises what will happen to the quantity demanded of oil, and more importantly the PRICE! It may be a ways off, and I don't know if the right time to sell these stocks is when they announce they are building the capacity or when it actually comes online, all I know is this is the red flag of all red flags. I would be willing to bet, that once this occurs (it may be a few years out) you will NEVER want to own another oil stock as long as you live! But hey that's just the random thought of the day...