I hate to gloat...but

Post from Feb 13, 2006

DELL
Breaking news everyone! Citigroup came out with their best idea for 2006! Brace yourself for this: DELL. Yeah thats right, Dell, is what they came up with. I would hate for them to have done research and attempted to come up with a new idea as opposed to a stock that has done nothing for 3 years and can't generate enough growth to drive the stock any longer, but apparently I am all wrong with my way of thinking. Yes, maybe if this was 1998 Citigroup would be brilliant, but its not and this type of outdated thinking is essentially a waste of everyone's time. The price at the begining of the year was $29.95, my money is that the price at the end of the year is +/- 5% of that and that at some point in time Citigroup does a deal with Dell. Thanks for your insight guys!


Feb 22, 2006:

Ohh yeah and by the way for those of you who read the DELL post below and also get Citigroup research can you maybe put in a phone call to them tomorrow and just compliment them on their exceptional analytical abilities. Lets see from the time I put up my sarcastic post until the close yesterday DELL has returned a whopping -5.8%!!!!! Keep those picks coming Citigroup!

Right Now:


21-Apr-06 Citigroup Downgrade from Buy to Sell

What, hold on now. Did they really do that? One of their best ideas. This cant be right. Not even to hold, straight to sell.

They had some great comments such as:

"Our revised ests assume a 200bp drop in gross margin beginning in 2FQ. This
suggests near term downside to the low $20's, but a $28 twelve-month target."

"The slow, steady erosion of Dell’s cost advantage combined with the company’s heavy
exposure to saturated portions of the global market explain the recent collapse in Dell’s
unit growth premium versus the global PC market.We believe that the days of Dell
growing at 2-3X the rate of the market while maintaining a 500-1000 basis point
operating margin premium versus competitors are gone forever."

"Our revised estimates suggest a fair value of $21-23, well below the current price of the
shares."

And my personal favorites:


Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services provided within the past 12
months from Dell Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or an affiliate received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services
from Dell Inc. in the past 12 months.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as investment banking client(s):
Dell Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services
provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Dell Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services
provided were non-investment-banking, non-securities-related: Dell Inc.


Yeah thanks guys, where does that put us? Down a nice 3 from taking your advice at the begining of the year, assuming we took your advice and bought then and sold on Friday. Because your downgrade knocked the stock another 5% and no individual would have been able to sell out at a better price. Thanks Citigroup for losing me 10% in 4 months, keep up the good work. Maybe we could get an upgrade on GM now to give people a good place to short them.